And it came to pass that there was no second referendum!
There never was going to be one, yet this did not stop
people believing that this was a possibility. The idea was peddled in the media
and through social networks. Even supposedly educated people, those who go
around calling themselves scientists for example, were prepared to talk about a
second referendum as though it were a real possibility. They were too busy thinking fast – those who thought slowly
would have seen that a second referendum was just nonsense and here is why:
There is no legal basis for a second referendum. The terms
and conditions of the EU referendum are laid down in an Act of Parliament. So
the specification that the ‘first to pass 50% would win’ is defined by law. The
Bill was also passed overwhelmingly and the outcome has not been challenged in
the courts. The petition seeking to have the terms of the Act changed, so that
a second referendum would be triggered if the vote is less than 60% based a
turnout less than 75% cannot be implemented without introducing retrospective
legislation. The UK Parliament does not in general implement retrospective
legislation. Only in very special circumstances does it do so: information
about when it does this is available in the public domain so anyone who was
talking about the idea of a second referendum could have consulted this
information and seen just how unlikely a piece of retrospective legislation
was. Did they consult this information? So you think we live in an information
society do you?
What then about a new Act of Parliament, enabling a fresh
referendum in the year … It would not be in 2016 that is for sure. It takes
time to debate a Bill, and to pass it into law. Windows of opportunity are also
limited. Voting in the UK
by tradition takes place in May/June, more rarely October, but this month
clashes with the Party conference season. Most likely then would be June 2018.
‘Subjective’ common sense would also tell anyone who cared to
think about the matter slowly that there was never going to be a second
referendum. On the Monday morning after the referendum, the Cabinet met and
accepted the result of the referendum, and leaving the EU then became
government policy. MPs in the House of Commons demonstrated on the Monday
afternoon that the result is accepted by the vast majority of MPs as well, even
by those who do not agree with the outcome of the referendum. The British
population is also suffering from referendum exhaustion. A second one is
unlikely be welcomed and probably would not be engaged with to the extent that
was seen in the June 2016 referendum, and a reduced participation would undermine the credibility of a
second referendum.
The idea of having a second referendum also undermines the
credibility of democracy – the UK ’s
democracy, which stands in sharp contrast to the frame of mind seen in some
continental European countries where undermining democracy, it seems, is not
seen as a problem. Perhaps this is why there have been so many problems in
continental Europe, and why the continentals are heading into more problems and
why, in the future, British people will look back and be glad that we were able
to get out before those problems manifested themselves (the contempt for a ‘democracy
of ordinary people’ that can be seen now in Brussels and continental Europe is
alarming, but very Ancient Greek!).
Anyone who cares to look in the real world will see that the
result of the referendum has been accepted by Government and Parliament and
that the process of leaving is already underway. This has been the case since
Monday June 27. It seems to have taken several weeks for this to become
apparent to many people. Some people still cannot see this.
Meanwhile the doomsayers will continue with their “woe is
us”, disregarding the fact that life is what you make it, and the British
people will make a new future outside the EU, for as David Cameron admitted
during the referendum campaign, “Britain can survive outside the EU.” It can
prosper too by developing the policies that are aligned with this new reality.
This too is already happening. All those people on the continent, and some at
home too, who are looking forward to the UK’s demise will be disappointed, for
they truly do not understand what it is to be British. Just look at our history
and you will begin to understand what I mean. And I am the most
un-nationalistic of people. Yet there comes a moment when it is appropriate to
unite and to act in the country’s interest. National crises that affect
everyone tend to unite people, regardless of whether they see themselves as English,
Scottish, Welsh or Irish. It seems now that we have a Prime Minister that knows
this!
So what is going to happen? The question is hard to answer given
the complexities! Legally we are still in the EU, but for practical purposes we
are already out. Most likely we will be formally out by the end of 2018,
because Article 50 is likely to be invoked before the end of 2016, sometime
between the time when Parliament returns from its summer recess, and the start
of the Christmas recess. But this does not mean we will be leaving at the end
of 2018!
The UK
government is very likely now to put in place very quickly, economic stimulus
measures to counter the negative effects of the withdrawal decision. The
engineering, energy and construction sectors are likely to experience a boom as
planned capital (infrastructure) investments are brought forward. An
opportunity to announce such measures comes in the autumn with the Chancellor
of the Exchequer’s Autumn Financial Statement to the House of Commons.
At this moment in time, the civil service is most likely
busy creating and analysing several exit scenarios. One of these must surely be
rapid exit sometime in 2017. Many people have come to assume that it will take
two years to leave. The reason for this is that Article 50 of the Treaty of
Lisbon allows 2 years for negotiations. It does not however specify that the
negotiations have to take 2 years. Both sides may have an interest in bringing
the matter to a speedy conclusion. And one way of doing that is to conclude a
transition agreement that allows final agreements to be moved into the future
and spread out over many years and thus moved out of the public gaze, thus
giving both sides the opportunity to claim that they got exactly what they
wanted and that no principles have been compromised. Who knows? I am of course speculating, which is exactly what
everyone did during the referendum, for it was not possible to predict, offer
exit plans, or even remain plans, for all is outside our control, and in the
hands of our Government, who will have to deal with a European Commission and
27 Member States that are unlikely to be able to agree among themselves, and
will want different and incompatible things, regardless of all the posturing
that is now taking place for public benefit.
And for the second time, the disembodied voice asked: “What
are you doing Paul?”
To be continued …
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